No Red Wave. No Blue Wave. Only Division.

The near tied results from the Ohio 12th congressional district special election demonstrate the split between Franklin county residents and residents in the other Ohio counties belonging to the 12th congressional district. One might be tempted to think a blue wave was blocked. One might be tempted to think a red wave is happening. Neither is an accurate portrayal of the current results.

Let’s summarize.

  1. Troy Balderson is the Republican Party candidate, Democrat Danny O’Connor is the Democratic Party candidate, and Green Party is represented by Joe Manchik.
  2. Troy Balderson and President Donald J. Trump have declared a Republican victory.
  3. Democratic party operatives declared the results show that there is a “Blue Wave” because the Ohio 12th has voted republican since the 1980s.
  4. Some twitter accounts suggest the votes for the Green party were spoiler votes.
  5. Trump won the district by 11 percentage points in 2016.
  6. Pre-election polling suggested the election would be close.
  7. Less the 30% of the electorate in the Ohio 12th district voted.
  8. Franklin county residents overwhelmingly voted for the candidate put forward by the Democratic Party. The majority of residents in the other counties cast votes for the Republican Party.
  9. Current results are a difference of 0.8% votes.
  10. An automatic recount happens if there is a 0.5% difference in votes.
  11. Ballots were lost in Franklin county, and some were recovered today.
  12. The Green Party candidate garnered about 1129 votes.
  13. There are currently 3,435 provisional ballots and 5,048 absentee ballots.
  14. There is an August 24th reporting deadline.
  15. The winner will serve in Congress for approximately 3 weeks. This is due to the campaign season starting.

Questions to ask:

  1. Why didn’t 70% of the electorate vote? What is holding them back?
  2. Why aren’t paper ballots being used instead of devices?
  3. How many people voted for the first time?